The Truth About Kelowna Real Estate – June 2011

Sales in June were down from last month and 5.51% lower than June 2010!

The Average and Median Residential Prices have fallen again.

The Average and Median Price of Condo/Apt has increased again

The downward trend in Sales is continuing; year to date sales are down by 15.57% from the previous year.

 

SALES

Sales in June were down from the previous month; they decreased from 366 to 343.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 7.36%.

 

INVENTORY

Inventory is up from the previous month; it increased from 5,223 to 5308.

Total increase:  87.

 

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price      May                    June                     Change

Residential          $471,128           $456,580           ($14,548)

Apartment          $273,083           $289,912           +$ 16,829 

Townhouse         $349,839           $348,305            ($  1,534)

 

Median Price

Residential          $436,038           $422,500             ($13,538)

Apartment          $254,272           $284,000            +$ 29,728

Townhouse         $327,450           $340,750            +$ 13,300

 

 

Those who have their Condo/Apartments for sale should be happier as the Average and Median Sales prices have increased substantially.

With an inventory of 5,300 units and sales of 343 units in a month, we have over 15 months of inventory. It certainly is a Buyer’s market.

 

An Interesting Report from Capital Economics

“Housing valuations have lost all touch with fundamentals and household debt is at a record high,” economists at the research consultancy Capital Economics say in their most recent Canada Economic Outlook.

The report predicts a fall in house prices by as much as 25 per cent over the next three years.

The company says Canadian house prices are overvalued by approximately 25 per cent, close to excessive levels seen in the frothy U.S. market at its 2006 peak.

Over-building is already visible; the number of unoccupied houses and condos is at a record high. It closely resembles the 1994-95 housing slump, when the construction industry experienced a severe downturn.

The report forecasts falling house prices and smaller residential investment. Real estate currently makes up 6.8 per cent of Canada’s GDP. Lower prices would mean a hit to household net worth as property now accounts for one-third of a family’s total assets, the report found.

I find this report significant for the Canada as a whole. However, there will be some areas that will perform better. We will have to wait to see if Kelowna is one of those areas.

 

The Truth About Kelowna Real Estate – May, 2011

Sales in May were up from last month and 18% lower than May 2010!

The downward trend in sales is continuing; year to date sales are down by 19.41% from the previous year.

May is traditionally the strongest month for sales in first half of the year, as Buyers want to have their newly purchased homes available to move into in July and August

 

SALES

Sales in May were up from the previous month; they increased from 324 to 338, an additional 14 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 7.62%.

 

INVENTORY

Inventory is up from the previous month; it increased from 4,896 to 5,223.

Total increase:  327.

 

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   April                  May                      Change

Residential          $477,652           $471,128           ($  6,524)

Apartment          $222,838           $273,083           +$ 50,245

Townhouse         $344,477           $349,839           +$   5,362

 

Median Price

Residential          $434,500           $436,038           +$  1,538

Apartment          $213,000           $254,272           +$ 41,272

Townhouse         $330,000           $327,450            ($  2,555)

 

The phenomenal increase in the Average and Median price of Condo/Apartments was due to the sale of a number of high end units, which seriously skewed the data. I wouldn’t expect these values to persist next month.

In summary, the market is still continuing its downward slide as far as sales are concerned.

May is traditionally the strongest month for sales in first half of the year, as Buyers want to have their newly purchased homes available to move into in July and August.

May is also the month of the highest number of listings as the landscape around the homes looks much better, as Sellers want to maximize their selling prices as a result of the curb appeal.

Here is some interesting news about our American neighbours.

An alliance of lenders, investors and non-profits formed at the behest of the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, counts 3.45 million homes being foreclosed from 2007 through 2010. Current estimates of pending and potential foreclosures range from another 4 million to as many as 14 million.

The Truth About Kelowna Real Estate – April, 2011

Sales in April were down from 16% from last month and 32% lower than April 2010!

The downward trend in sales is continuing; year to date sales are down by 21.19% from the previous year.

Average prices in Residential and Apartment/Condo categories have decreased, but less so in the Townhouse category.

Median prices are stabilizing except for the Townhouse category.

 

SALES

Sales in April were down from the previous month; they decreased from 341 to 298.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 6.89%. This is down from the previous month due to increase in inventory and lower sales.

 

INVENTORY

Inventory (listings) is up from the previous month; it increased from 4750 to 4,896.

Total increase:  146.

 

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price      March                 April                      Change

Residential          $486,609           $477,652           ($8,975)

Apartment          $232,630           $222,838           ($9,792)

Townhouse         $347,035           $344,477           ($2,588)

 

Median Price

Residential          $433,750           $434,500           +$     750

Apartment          $210,000           $213,000           +$   3,000

Townhouse         $319,000           $330,000           + $11,000

 

In summary, the market is continuing its downward slide as far as sales are concerned.

As I said last month, April sales may deteriorate with the new financial rules for government backed insured mortgages which went into effect on March 18, 2011. It appears that has happened.

Centre Point condominium project has ceased attempting to sell units and now has them up for rent. This should prove interesting in an already oversupplied rental market.

I would say the next problem area would be an increase in interest rates. This is a very real probability due to inflation, which the government is pretending is not happening.

It appears the Government doesn’t include anything that goes up in price, in the Consumer Price Index!

Things like gasoline, food, taxes,etc.!

 

 

 

 

The Truth About Kelowna Real Estate – March, 2011

Sales are up from last month but still lower than March 2010!

The downward trend in sales is continuing; year to date sales are down by 17.57% from the previous year.

The apartment segment still appears to be in trouble!

However, the Residential and Townhouse segments have shown some strengthening in prices

 

SALES

Sales in March were up from the previous month; they increased from 233 to 341. Although this was an increase of 108 from February, sales were down 46 units or 12% from 2010.

The downward trend in sales is continuing; year to date sales are down by 17.57% from the previous year. The ratio of sales to listings is now 8.4%.

 

INVENTORY

Inventory (listings) was up from the previous month; they increased from 4506 to 4750.

Total increase:  244.

 

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   February            March                    Change

Residential          $443,360           $486,609           +$43,249

Apartment          $282,292           $232,630           ($49,662)

Townhouse         $336,235           $347,035           +$10,800

 

Median Price

Residential          $422,099           $433,750           +$11,651

Apartment          $246,000           $210,000            ($36,000)

Townhouse         $304,250           $319,000            + $14,750

 

In summary, the market is continuing its downward slide as far as sales are concerned. Sales may further deteriorate with the new financial rules for government backed insured mortgages which went into effect on March 18, 2011.

It appears there may be some strengthening in prices in the residential and townhouse segments of the market.

The condo/apartment market is still in trouble as indicators show further declines.

 

Brian

Brian M. McCallion B Com, A.I.I.C

Independent Financial Advisor

Box 22108

Capri Post Office

Kelowna, BC. V1Y 9N9

Phone: 250-979-0570

Cell:    250-215-1763

www.BrianMcCallion.ca

Brian@BrianMcCallion.ca

 

The Truth About Kelowna Real Estate – February, 2011

Sales are up from last month but substantially lower than February 2010!

 

The downward trend in sales is continuing; sales are down by approximately 25% from the previous year.

 

However, Average Price of Residential, Townhouse, and Condominiums have increased! In addition, the Median Price of Residential and Condominium units have also increased.

 

This could be the bottoming out of the market with regard to prices! We will have to wait a few more months to be definite.

 

SALES

Sales in January were up from the previous month; they increased from 197 to 233.

This is an increase of only 36 from January.

 

The downward trend in sales is continuing; sales are down by 77 units from the previous year. This pretty much in line with the Canadian Real Estate Association’s forecast for 2011.

 

The ratio of sales to listings is now 6.87%.

 

INVENTORY

Inventory (listings) was up from the previous month; it increased from 4137 to 4506.

 

Total increase:  369.

 

 

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   January              February           Change

Residential          $435,686           $443,360           +$ 7,674

Apartment          $267,141           $282,292           +$15,150

Townhouse         $319,064           $336,235           +$17,171

 

Median Price

Residential          $410,000           $422,099           +$12,099

Apartment          $236,500           $246,000           +$  9,500

Townhouse         $317,000           $304,250           -$12,750

 

 

In summary, the market is continuing its downward slide as far as sales are concerned. Sales may further deteriorate with the new financial rules for government backed insured mortgages which went into effect on March 18, 2011.

 

It appears there may be some strengthening in prices; only time will tell.

 

Brian McCallion

 

 


The Truth About Kelowna Real Estate – January, 2011

Sales are up from last month but substantially lower than January 2009!

The downward trend in sales is continuing!

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SALES

Sales in January were up from the previous month; they increased from 169 to 197.

This is an increase of only 28 from December.

The downward trend in sales is continuing; sales are down by 85 units from the previous year.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 6.37%.

INVENTORY

Inventory (listings) was up from the previous month; they increased from 3794 to 4137.

Total increase:  343.

This was predictable as Sellers re-list their homes after the Holiday Season.

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   December            January            Change

Residential          $462,527           $435,686           -$26,841

Apartment          $246,241           $267,141           +$20,900

Townhouse         $333,472           $319,064           -$14,408

Median Price

Residential          $418,750           $410,000           -$ 8,750

Apartment          $192,500           $236,500           +$44,000

Townhouse         $325,000           $317,000           -$ 8,000

In summary, the market is continuing its downward slide!

Average Residential Prices vary considerably on a month to month basis as the result of the number of properties sold over 1 million dollar. What is indicative is the Mean Residential Price; which indicates that 50% of the residential properties sold were $410,000 or less.

The Condo/Apt Median and Average Prices have increased! If this continues; this is good news for their owners who have seen an approximately 40% decrease in market value.

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Brian@BrianMcCallion.ca

The Truth About Kelowna Real Estate – December, 2010

Sales are down again!

This was predictable as Buyers were not looking for homes during the Holiday Season.

However, what is significant is that the downward trend in sales is continuing; sales are down by 90 units from the previous year.

Average and Median prices have increased due to sales of higher priced homes in December.

SALES

Sales in November were down from the previous month; they decreased from 210 to 169.

This is a decrease of 41 from November.

This was predictable as Buyers were not looking for homes during the Holiday Season.

However, what is significant is that the downward trend in sales is continuing; sales are down by 90 units from the previous year.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 4.93% due to decreased sales.

INVENTORY

Inventory (listings) was down again from the previous month; they decreased from 4413 to 3794.

Total decrease:  619.

This was predictable as Sellers don’t want Buyers viewing their homes during the Holiday Season.

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   November           December         Change

Residential          $440,123           $462,527           +$22,404

Apartment          $237,066           $246,241           +$  9,175

Townhouse         $313,600           $333,472           +$19,872

Median Price

Residential          $407,500           $418,750           +$11,250

Apartment          $217,450           $192,500           -$24,950

Townhouse         $303,000           $325,000           +$22,000


In summary, the market is still down from last year.

However, it seems that prices are beginning to stabilize; but we won’t know for sure until a few more months have passed.

The Truth About Kelowna Real Estate – November, 2010

Sales and Average Home Prices are down again!

These are the lowest numbers year to date!

The Average  Residential Home Price dropped by $56,636.00

The Median Residential Home Price is now $407,500!

In other words 1/2 of the Residential homes sold were $407,500 or less!


SALES

Sales in November were down from the previous month; they decreased from 274 to 210.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 5.43% due to decreased sales


INVENTORY

Inventory (listings) was down again from the previous month; they decreased from 4676 to 4413.

Total decrease:  263


HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   October               November         Change

Residential          $496,759           $440,123           – $56,636

Apartment          $244,118           $237,066           – $  7,052

Townhouse         $316,619           $313,600           – $  3,019

Median Price

Residential          $427,500           $407,500           - $20,000

Apartment          $216,250           $217,450            +$ 1,200

Townhouse         $315,000           $303,000            – $12,000


According to Robert Kiyosaki of “Rich Dad – Poor Dad” fame, the health of a community can be determined by the inflow or outflow of residents. He calls the local U-Haul dealer to see which way the people are moving.

I contacted a U-Haul dealer in Kelowna, who indicated that people have been leaving Kelowna in droves for about 2 years. Their destinations have been Alberta, Saskatchewan, and the East Coast.

I agree with the Canadian Real Estate Association. I  believe prices have not reached bottom! We probably have another year of declining prices in Kelowna.

The Truth About Kelowna Real Estate – October, 2010

The Canadian Real Estate Association has slashed its home sales forecast!

National sales activity is now expected to fall 4.9% this year and tumble another 9% next year.

Sales Activity Year to Date in Kelowna is down approximately 9%. This is almost double the National Forecast.

However, while the Canadian Real Estate Association expects prices to decrease 1.3%; some banks are expecting prices to fall as much as 10% next year. (Globe and Mail – November 6, 2010)

There was a slight uptick in sales and residential prices in October, in Kelowna and area; I suspect it won’t last.


SALES

Sales in October were up slightly from the previous month; they increased from 221 to 274.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 6.31% due to increased sales and much lower inventory.

INVENTORY

Inventory (listings) was down again from the previous month; they decreased from 5059 to 4676.

Total decrease:  383

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   September         October             Change

Residential          $466,382           $496,759           +$30,377

Apartment          $234,800           $244,118           +$  9,318

Townhouse         $341,088           $316,619           -$24,469

Median Price

Residential          $425,000           $427,500          +$ 2,500

Apartment          $218,000           $216,250           -$ 1,750

Townhouse         $332,000           $315,000          -$17,000

The Truth About Kelowna Real Estate – September, 2010

It is still a Buyer’s market in Kelowna!

It appears as the market is still in a downward slide.

Your mortgage may not be renewable!

SALES

Sales in September were down again from the previous month; they decreased from 284 to 221.

This is least amount of sales for a month, year to date; a decrease of 183 sales for the same month last year.

The ratio of sales to listings is now down to 5.11% due to decreased sales even though there is lower inventory.

INVENTORY

Inventory (listings) was down again from the previous month; they decreased from 5309 to 5059.

Total decrease:  250

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price     August               September        Change

Residential          $496,077           $466,382           -$29,695

Apartment          $283,464           $234,800           -$48,664

Townhouse         $372,047           $341,088            -$30,959

Median Price

Residential          $437,500           $425,000           -$12,500

Apartment          $255,000           $218,000           -$37,000

Townhouse         $360,000           $332,000           -$28,000

Half of the residential homes sold were less than $425,000 (median price); $12,500 LESS than the previous month.

The average price also dropped from $496,077to $466,382;$29,695 Less than last month

As you can see by the above; values continue to fall!

I still don’t think we have seen the bottom. I think there is more fallout to come!

A few mortgage brokers have indicated to me that mortgages may or may not be renewable due to  loan to value ratios. The main reason for this is, lower than anticipated home evaluations and the inability to facilitate a total refinance due to a higher debt load than what a traditional conventional mortgage or CMHC insured mortgage on a property can bear.

One mortgage broker has even been given business from a financial institution because they could not renew under the institutions guidelines (loan to value).