Real estate sales and real estate prices are still dropping in most areas of British Columbia including Kelowna.

Sales in January were up from December, which was to be expected as the Holiday Season was over. However, there was 1 less sale  and the dollar volume was down by 7.78% as compared to January 2011

Inventory has also increased as Sellers put their homes back on the market after the Holiday Season.

SALES

Sales in January were up from the December; they increased from 183 to 212; up by 29 units. However, there was 1 less sale  and the dollar volume was down by 7.78% as compared to January 2011

The ratio of sales to listings is now 5.73%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is up from the previous month; it has increased from 3,856 to 4,233.

Total increase: 377

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price     December           January               Change

Residential          $451,130           $415,358           ($35,772)

Apartment          $196,066            $267,945           +$71,879

Townhouse         $324,183            $380,372           +$56,189

Median Price

Residential         $424,625           $403,600            ($21,025)

Apartment          $186,500           $233,000           +$46,500

Townhouse         $310,000           $351,000           +$41,000

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that the dollar volume of homes sold through Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC dipped 7.6 per cent to $2.1 billion in January compared to the same month last year.

A total of 3,976 homes traded hands on the MLS® over the same period, down 3.9 per cent. Therefore, the Kelowna market represents only 5% of the total sales in British Columbia.

So we can see from these statistics that real estate sales and real estate prices are still dropping in most areas of British Columbia including Kelowna.

Sales in December were down from November, which is to be expected in December as it’s the Holiday Season.

Inventory was also substantially reduced as Sellers take their homes off the market for the Holiday Season.

Sales for the 2011 were up only 1.09% from 2010.

SALES

Sales in December were down from the November; they decreased from 258 to 183; down by 75 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 5.43%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is down from the previous month; it decreased from 4479 to 3856.

Total decrease: 623

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   November        December        Change

Residential          $456,910           $451,130           ($ 5,780)

Apartment           $250,545           $196,066           ($54,479)

Townhouse         $337,129           $324,183           ($12,946)

Median Price

Residential          $426,700           $424,625          ($ 2,075)

Apartment           $219,500           $186,500          ($33,000)

Townhouse         $297,000           $310,000          +$13,000

As to be expected Sales were down in the month of December.

What is interesting was that the Average Price for the 3 categories were down and the Median Price for Residential and Apartment were also down.

Sales in November were down from October and 16.74% higher than November 2010 an increase of 37 units!

Average Prices in November for Residential and Apartment/Condominium categories were lower than October.

Median Prices for Residential and Apt. /Condo categories have increased.

SALES

Sales in November were down from the October; they decreased from 293 to 258; down by 35 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 6.59%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is down from the previous month; it decreased from 4,765 to 4479.

Total decrease: 286

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   October              November        Change

Residential         $463,503           $456,910           ($6,593)

Apartment          $250,507           $250,545            +$   38

Townhouse         $347,664           $337,129            ($10,535)

Median Price

Residential         $417,500           $426,700            $ 9,200

Apartment          $210,625           $219,500             $ 8,875

Townhouse         $350,000           $297,000            ($53,000)

Year to date sales in 2011 are now only 1.33% lower than 2010!

The fact that Median Prices for Residential and Apartment /Condominium categories have increased may indicate that the market has bottomed out; only time will tell. December is usually a slow month; so January will be the month to watch.

Median Price for the Townhouse category reversed to previous levels. I have no idea why these fluctuations seem to repeat themselves alternating months.

Sales in October were down from September and 1.07% lower than October 2010!

Median prices in October for Residential and Apartment/Condominium categories were lower than September.

There is still a downward pressure on prices as evidenced by the Median Prices for Residential, and Condo/Apt categories.

SALES

Sales in October were down from the September; they decreased from 319 to 277; down by 42 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 6.38%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is down from the previous month; it decreased from 4,991 to 4,765.

Total decrease: 226

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   September         October         Change

Residential          $517,864           $463,503           ($54,361)

Apartment          $256,189           $250,507            ($ 5,682)

Townhouse         $328,331           $347,664           +$19,333

Median Price

Residential          $427,000           $417,500            ($ 9,500)

Apartment          $212,500           $210,625             ($ 1,875)

Townhouse         $303,646           $350,000             +$46,354

Year to date sales in 2011 are 3.08% lower than 2010, which was predicted.

Median Price for the Townhouse category reversed to the same value as August, which is interesting.

It appears that sales and prices are still in a decline. With the current economic environment I can’t see any improvement in sales or prices for some time.

It is still a great Buyer’s market!

There is still a downward pressure on prices as evidenced by the Median Prices for Residential, Condo/Apt and Townhouse categories.

Median prices in September for all categories were lower than August.

Sales in September were down slightly from August and 20% higher than September 2010!

SALES

Sales in September were down from the August; they decreased from 304 to 296; only down by 8 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 7.15%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is down from the previous month; it decreased from 5,186 to 4,992.

Total decrease: 194

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   August             September       Change

Residential         $470,138           $517,864           +$47,726

Apartment          $243,307           $256,189           +$12,882

Townhouse         $355,573          $328,331            ($27,242)

Median Price

Residential         $431,935           $427,000          ($ 4,935)

Apartment          $237,000           $212,500          ($24,500)

Townhouse        $350,000           $303,646          ($46,354)

I believe Median Prices are more indicative of the market than Average Prices as the Average price can be seriously affected by the sale of million dollar plus homes.

Median Price indicates that half of the homes sold were less than the Median Price.

Although sales are levelling off, there is still a downward pressure on prices due to high inventories and lack of demand.

Sales in August were down 29% from July and 2.05% lower than August 2010!

The Average and Median Residential Prices have decreased.

The Average and Median Price of Condo/Apt have increased

The gap between 2010 sales and 2011 sales is getting narrower. The year to date sales are now only down by 7.18%; 2% less than last month.

SALES

Sales in August were down from the July; they decreased from 369 to 286; a total of 83 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 7.59%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is down from the previous month; it decreased from 5,338 to 5237.

Total decrease: 101

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   July                    August       Change

Residential          $490,364           $470,138           -$20,226

Apartment          $229,469           $243,307           +$13,838

Townhouse         $366,403           $355,573           -$10,830

Median Price

Residential          $434,000           $431,935           -$12,065

Apartment          $216,950           $237,000           +$20,050

Townhouse         $336,750           $350,000            +$13,250

It appears that the market inventory is still high.

At the current level of sales there is an eighteen month supply.

I would suggest this will put more downward pressure on prices.

Residential sales in July were down 8% from June and 36.04% higher than July 2010!

The Average and Median Residential Prices have risen.

The Average and Median Price of Condo/Apt have decreased.

The Good News is the gap between 2010 sales and 2011 sales is getting narrower. The year to date sales are now only down by 9.18%.

SALES

Sales in July were down from the June; they decreased from 369 to 341

The ratio of sales to listings is now 7.40%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is up from the previous month; it increased from 5,308 to 5338.

Total increase:  30

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price     June                       July                    Change

Residential          $456,580           $490,364           +$33,784

Apartment          $289,912           $229,469            ($60,443) 

Townhouse         $348,305           $366,403           +$18,098

Median Price

Residential          $422,500           $434,000            +$11,500

Apartment          $284,000           $216,950             ($67,050)

Townhouse         $340,750           $336,750             ($ 4,000)

Sales in July were down from June which is to be expected, as Buyers and Sellers will be completing existing sales in order to be in their residences by September and start of school.

Unfortunately, the Average and Median Prices for Condo/Apt have decreased substantially. Some “high end” condo sales must have skewed last month’s statistics in order for these statistics to change so radically.

All in all the market seems to be stabilizing which is good news.

Sales in June were down from last month and 5.51% lower than June 2010!

The Average and Median Residential Prices have fallen again.

The Average and Median Price of Condo/Apt has increased again

The downward trend in Sales is continuing; year to date sales are down by 15.57% from the previous year.

SALES

Sales in June were down from the previous month; they decreased from 366 to 343.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 7.36%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is up from the previous month; it increased from 5,223 to 5308.

Total increase:  87.

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price      May                    June                     Change

Residential          $471,128           $456,580           ($14,548)

Apartment          $273,083           $289,912           +$ 16,829 

Townhouse         $349,839           $348,305            ($  1,534)

Median Price

Residential          $436,038           $422,500             ($13,538)

Apartment          $254,272           $284,000            +$ 29,728

Townhouse         $327,450           $340,750            +$ 13,300

Those who have their Condo/Apartments for sale should be happier as the Average and Median Sales prices have increased substantially.

With an inventory of 5,300 units and sales of 343 units in a month, we have over 15 months of inventory. It certainly is a Buyer’s market.

An Interesting Report from Capital Economics

“Housing valuations have lost all touch with fundamentals and household debt is at a record high,” economists at the research consultancy Capital Economics say in their most recent Canada Economic Outlook.

The report predicts a fall in house prices by as much as 25 per cent over the next three years.

The company says Canadian house prices are overvalued by approximately 25 per cent, close to excessive levels seen in the frothy U.S. market at its 2006 peak.

Over-building is already visible; the number of unoccupied houses and condos is at a record high. It closely resembles the 1994-95 housing slump, when the construction industry experienced a severe downturn.

The report forecasts falling house prices and smaller residential investment. Real estate currently makes up 6.8 per cent of Canada’s GDP. Lower prices would mean a hit to household net worth as property now accounts for one-third of a family’s total assets, the report found.

I find this report significant for the Canada as a whole. However, there will be some areas that will perform better. We will have to wait to see if Kelowna is one of those areas.

Sales in May were up from last month and 18% lower than May 2010!

The downward trend in sales is continuing; year to date sales are down by 19.41% from the previous year.

May is traditionally the strongest month for sales in first half of the year, as Buyers want to have their newly purchased homes available to move into in July and August

SALES

Sales in May were up from the previous month; they increased from 324 to 338, an additional 14 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 7.62%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is up from the previous month; it increased from 4,896 to 5,223.

Total increase:  327.

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   April                  May                      Change

Residential          $477,652           $471,128           ($  6,524)

Apartment          $222,838           $273,083           +$ 50,245

Townhouse         $344,477           $349,839           +$   5,362

Median Price

Residential          $434,500           $436,038           +$  1,538

Apartment          $213,000           $254,272           +$ 41,272

Townhouse         $330,000           $327,450            ($  2,555)

The phenomenal increase in the Average and Median price of Condo/Apartments was due to the sale of a number of high end units, which seriously skewed the data. I wouldn’t expect these values to persist next month.

In summary, the market is still continuing its downward slide as far as sales are concerned.

May is traditionally the strongest month for sales in first half of the year, as Buyers want to have their newly purchased homes available to move into in July and August.

May is also the month of the highest number of listings as the landscape around the homes looks much better, as Sellers want to maximize their selling prices as a result of the curb appeal.

Here is some interesting news about our American neighbours.

“An alliance of lenders, investors and non-profits formed at the behest of the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, counts 3.45 million homes being foreclosed from 2007 through 2010. Current estimates of pending and potential foreclosures range from another 4 million to as many as 14 million.

Sales in April were down from 16% from last month and 32% lower than April 2010!

The downward trend in sales is continuing; year to date sales are down by 21.19% from the previous year.

Average prices in Residential and Apartment/Condo categories have decreased, but less so in the Townhouse category.

Median prices are stabilizing except for the Townhouse category.

SALES

Sales in April were down from the previous month; they decreased from 341 to 298.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 6.89%. This is down from the previous month due to increase in inventory and lower sales.

INVENTORY

Inventory (listings) is up from the previous month; it increased from 4750 to 4,896.

Total increase:  146.

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price      March                 April                      Change

Residential          $486,609           $477,652           ($8,975)

Apartment          $232,630           $222,838           ($9,792)

Townhouse         $347,035           $344,477           ($2,588)

Median Price

Residential          $433,750           $434,500           +$     750

Apartment          $210,000           $213,000           +$   3,000

Townhouse         $319,000           $330,000           + $11,000

In summary, the market is continuing its downward slide as far as sales are concerned.

As I said last month, April sales may deteriorate with the new financial rules for government backed insured mortgages which went into effect on March 18, 2011. It appears that has happened.

Centre Point condominium project has ceased attempting to sell units and now has them up for rent. This should prove interesting in an already oversupplied rental market.

I would say the next problem area would be an increase in interest rates. This is a very real probability due to inflation, which the government is pretending is not happening.

It appears the Government doesn’t include anything that goes up in price, in the Consumer Price Index!

Things like gasoline, food, taxes,etc.!