Has Kelowna Dodged the Bullet?

Sales in April were down from March.

Prices have seemed to stabilize with the exception of the Apartment/Condo category.

The Residential and Townhouse segments had a less than 1% increase in the Average Price for the same month last year, while the Apartment/Condo decreased by 2.33%.

SALES

Sales in April were down from the March; they decreased from 351 to 341; down by 10 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 8.25%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is up from the previous month; it has increased from 4,767 to 4,975.

Total increase: 208

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price    March                    April                  Change

Residential         $456,568           $482,093           +$25,525

Apartment          $226,365           $220,235            ($  6,130)

Townhouse         $319,861           $348,294           +$28,433

Median Price

Residential         $415,000           $435,000          +$20,000

Apartment          $214,950           $209,900           ($  5,050)

Townhouse         $324,700           $339,800           +$15,100

The Average Price for Residential was up only .21% from same month last year.

The Average Price for Townhouse was up by only .45 % for the same month last year

The Average Price for Apartment/Condo was down by 2.33% from the same month last year.

Is it too early to determine if Kelowna has dodged the bullet!

The British Columbia Real Estate Association has stated: “Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 15.8 per cent to $15 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales dipped 9.7 per cent to 23,782 units, while the average MLS® residential price was 6.8 per cent lower at $546,870”

Despite all the hype, Year to Date Total Residential sales were only up by 12 units.  Sales rose from 754 in 2011 to 766 in 2012.

Sales for the month of March were down 1.40% from March 2011.

Real Estate Sales in March were up from February.

SALES

Sales in March were up from the February; they increased from 289 to 351; up by 62 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 9.87%.

 INVENTORY

Inventory is up from the previous month; it has increased from 4,502 to 4,767.

Total increase: 265

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   February           March                Change

Residential         $437,267           $456,568           +$19,301

Apartment          $204,262           $226,365           +$22,103  

Townhouse         $344,138           $319,861            ($24,277)

Median Price

Residential         $404,960           $415,000           +$10,040

Apartment          $186,450           $214,950           +$28,500

Townhouse         $335,000           $324,700            ($10,300)

Average and Median prices for Residential and Apartment/Condo are up. Average and Median prices for Townhouse are down.

There is a lot of inventory available which will increase in the next month as the weather warms up and homes have better curb appeal.

Real Estate Sales in February were up from January. However, it appears prices are still declining in the Apartment/Condo and Townhouse markets.

The Residential market seems to be stabilizing with slight increase in the Median and Average price.

The Apartment/Condo market has taken the biggest hit with the Average Price decreasing by over $60,000 and the Median Price by over $46,000. I suspect this is market with the most foreclosures as many were bought on speculation in the boom years.

SALES

Sales in January were up from the January; they increased from 212 to 289; up by 77 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 7.43%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is up from the previous month; it has increased from 4,233 to 4,502.

 Total increase: 269

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   January            February        Change

Residential         $415,358           $437,267           +$21,909

Apartment          $267,945           $204,262            ($63,683) 

Townhouse        $380,372           $344,138            ($36,234)

Median Price

Residential         $403,600           $404,960          +$ 1,360

Apartment          $233,000           $186,450            ($46,550)

Townhouse        $351,000           $335,000            ($16,000)

The Canadian Real Estate Association reported that Kelowna, a popular spot for retirees and vacation homes, reported a tenfold increase in foreclosures compared to three years ago. I believe the majority of these are in the Condo/Apt market as many were bought on speculation and can’t be rented to cover the ongoing costs of ownership.

David Madani, a former Bank of Canada analyst now with Capital Economics said: “Overconfidence is what’s driving the market. It’s been fuelled by cheap credit. That just can’t keep going on forever. I think it’s going to end badly.”

Tom Bradley the President of Steadyhand Investment Funds said: “When I put together the economic fundamentals, valuation and sentiment, real estate, as an investment, doesn’t look very attractive.The distribution of possible outcomes looks asymmetrical to me – limited upside and plenty of possible downside. But what really screams out at me is how many important factors are at extremes …BAD extremes”.

It appears that things may get worse before they get better!

Another Interesting Fact:

Home equity lines of credit, known in the industry as HELOCs, have increased 170 per cent in the past decade, twice as fast as new mortgages. The federal government recognized just how risky HELOCs had become last April, when it announced it would no longer allow the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation to insure them.

Real estate sales and real estate prices are still dropping in most areas of British Columbia including Kelowna.

Sales in January were up from December, which was to be expected as the Holiday Season was over. However, there was 1 less sale  and the dollar volume was down by 7.78% as compared to January 2011

Inventory has also increased as Sellers put their homes back on the market after the Holiday Season.

SALES

Sales in January were up from the December; they increased from 183 to 212; up by 29 units. However, there was 1 less sale  and the dollar volume was down by 7.78% as compared to January 2011

The ratio of sales to listings is now 5.73%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is up from the previous month; it has increased from 3,856 to 4,233.

Total increase: 377

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price     December           January               Change

Residential          $451,130           $415,358           ($35,772)

Apartment          $196,066            $267,945           +$71,879

Townhouse         $324,183            $380,372           +$56,189

Median Price

Residential         $424,625           $403,600            ($21,025)

Apartment          $186,500           $233,000           +$46,500

Townhouse         $310,000           $351,000           +$41,000

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that the dollar volume of homes sold through Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC dipped 7.6 per cent to $2.1 billion in January compared to the same month last year.

A total of 3,976 homes traded hands on the MLS® over the same period, down 3.9 per cent. Therefore, the Kelowna market represents only 5% of the total sales in British Columbia.

So we can see from these statistics that real estate sales and real estate prices are still dropping in most areas of British Columbia including Kelowna.

Sales in December were down from November, which is to be expected in December as it’s the Holiday Season.

Inventory was also substantially reduced as Sellers take their homes off the market for the Holiday Season.

Sales for the 2011 were up only 1.09% from 2010.

SALES

Sales in December were down from the November; they decreased from 258 to 183; down by 75 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 5.43%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is down from the previous month; it decreased from 4479 to 3856.

Total decrease: 623

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   November        December        Change

Residential          $456,910           $451,130           ($ 5,780)

Apartment           $250,545           $196,066           ($54,479)

Townhouse         $337,129           $324,183           ($12,946)

Median Price

Residential          $426,700           $424,625          ($ 2,075)

Apartment           $219,500           $186,500          ($33,000)

Townhouse         $297,000           $310,000          +$13,000

As to be expected Sales were down in the month of December.

What is interesting was that the Average Price for the 3 categories were down and the Median Price for Residential and Apartment were also down.

Sales in November were down from October and 16.74% higher than November 2010 an increase of 37 units!

Average Prices in November for Residential and Apartment/Condominium categories were lower than October.

Median Prices for Residential and Apt. /Condo categories have increased.

SALES

Sales in November were down from the October; they decreased from 293 to 258; down by 35 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 6.59%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is down from the previous month; it decreased from 4,765 to 4479.

Total decrease: 286

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   October              November        Change

Residential         $463,503           $456,910           ($6,593)

Apartment          $250,507           $250,545            +$   38

Townhouse         $347,664           $337,129            ($10,535)

Median Price

Residential         $417,500           $426,700            $ 9,200

Apartment          $210,625           $219,500             $ 8,875

Townhouse         $350,000           $297,000            ($53,000)

Year to date sales in 2011 are now only 1.33% lower than 2010!

The fact that Median Prices for Residential and Apartment /Condominium categories have increased may indicate that the market has bottomed out; only time will tell. December is usually a slow month; so January will be the month to watch.

Median Price for the Townhouse category reversed to previous levels. I have no idea why these fluctuations seem to repeat themselves alternating months.

Sales in October were down from September and 1.07% lower than October 2010!

Median prices in October for Residential and Apartment/Condominium categories were lower than September.

There is still a downward pressure on prices as evidenced by the Median Prices for Residential, and Condo/Apt categories.

SALES

Sales in October were down from the September; they decreased from 319 to 277; down by 42 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 6.38%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is down from the previous month; it decreased from 4,991 to 4,765.

Total decrease: 226

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   September         October         Change

Residential          $517,864           $463,503           ($54,361)

Apartment          $256,189           $250,507            ($ 5,682)

Townhouse         $328,331           $347,664           +$19,333

Median Price

Residential          $427,000           $417,500            ($ 9,500)

Apartment          $212,500           $210,625             ($ 1,875)

Townhouse         $303,646           $350,000             +$46,354

Year to date sales in 2011 are 3.08% lower than 2010, which was predicted.

Median Price for the Townhouse category reversed to the same value as August, which is interesting.

It appears that sales and prices are still in a decline. With the current economic environment I can’t see any improvement in sales or prices for some time.

It is still a great Buyer’s market!

There is still a downward pressure on prices as evidenced by the Median Prices for Residential, Condo/Apt and Townhouse categories.

Median prices in September for all categories were lower than August.

Sales in September were down slightly from August and 20% higher than September 2010!

SALES

Sales in September were down from the August; they decreased from 304 to 296; only down by 8 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 7.15%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is down from the previous month; it decreased from 5,186 to 4,992.

Total decrease: 194

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   August             September       Change

Residential         $470,138           $517,864           +$47,726

Apartment          $243,307           $256,189           +$12,882

Townhouse         $355,573          $328,331            ($27,242)

Median Price

Residential         $431,935           $427,000          ($ 4,935)

Apartment          $237,000           $212,500          ($24,500)

Townhouse        $350,000           $303,646          ($46,354)

I believe Median Prices are more indicative of the market than Average Prices as the Average price can be seriously affected by the sale of million dollar plus homes.

Median Price indicates that half of the homes sold were less than the Median Price.

Although sales are levelling off, there is still a downward pressure on prices due to high inventories and lack of demand.

Sales in August were down 29% from July and 2.05% lower than August 2010!

The Average and Median Residential Prices have decreased.

The Average and Median Price of Condo/Apt have increased

The gap between 2010 sales and 2011 sales is getting narrower. The year to date sales are now only down by 7.18%; 2% less than last month.

SALES

Sales in August were down from the July; they decreased from 369 to 286; a total of 83 units.

The ratio of sales to listings is now 7.59%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is down from the previous month; it decreased from 5,338 to 5237.

Total decrease: 101

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price   July                    August       Change

Residential          $490,364           $470,138           -$20,226

Apartment          $229,469           $243,307           +$13,838

Townhouse         $366,403           $355,573           -$10,830

Median Price

Residential          $434,000           $431,935           -$12,065

Apartment          $216,950           $237,000           +$20,050

Townhouse         $336,750           $350,000            +$13,250

It appears that the market inventory is still high.

At the current level of sales there is an eighteen month supply.

I would suggest this will put more downward pressure on prices.

Residential sales in July were down 8% from June and 36.04% higher than July 2010!

The Average and Median Residential Prices have risen.

The Average and Median Price of Condo/Apt have decreased.

The Good News is the gap between 2010 sales and 2011 sales is getting narrower. The year to date sales are now only down by 9.18%.

SALES

Sales in July were down from the June; they decreased from 369 to 341

The ratio of sales to listings is now 7.40%.

INVENTORY

Inventory is up from the previous month; it increased from 5,308 to 5338.

Total increase:  30

HOUSE PRICES

Average Price     June                       July                    Change

Residential          $456,580           $490,364           +$33,784

Apartment          $289,912           $229,469            ($60,443) 

Townhouse         $348,305           $366,403           +$18,098

Median Price

Residential          $422,500           $434,000            +$11,500

Apartment          $284,000           $216,950             ($67,050)

Townhouse         $340,750           $336,750             ($ 4,000)

Sales in July were down from June which is to be expected, as Buyers and Sellers will be completing existing sales in order to be in their residences by September and start of school.

Unfortunately, the Average and Median Prices for Condo/Apt have decreased substantially. Some “high end” condo sales must have skewed last month’s statistics in order for these statistics to change so radically.

All in all the market seems to be stabilizing which is good news.